The Cubs: Baseball's Most Overrated Team

After more than a century of failure, you'd think by now that we wouldn't expect much of the Cubs. But, no: Chicago's North Siders are in fact baseball's most overrated team.

Associated Press

Chicago Cubs catcher Koyie Hill

This calculation is based on how many games each of baseball's 30 teams have been projected to win since 2006 by sportsbooks and how many they actually won during that span. Not much has been expected of the Cubs in recent years: Only once were they projected to top 90 wins in a season. And yet, through Sunday, the Cubs had won 34 fewer games since 2006 than they were expected to, the biggest shortfall in the majors. (This includes the prorated number of wins the Cubs are on pace to have this season.)

Next on the most-overrated ranking are the Pirates (-29) and Indians (-27), although both are trending upward because of their surprisingly competitive play this season. Franchises that have suffered through 100-loss seasons like the Nationals (-26) tend to be toward the bottom of the list, because Vegas rarely projects teams to be that bad. Of course, like all wagering lines, the projected win totals in sportsbooks are catered to reflect public perception.

The most underrated franchises in recent years have been Florida and Minnesota (both +29), although the Twins are on pace to fall well short of their 2011 "over-under" of 86.5. But no team is a safer "under" bet than the Cubs, who have finished below their projection four of the past five years. And they're on pace for just 63 wins this season?17 short of their projection.

?Darren Everson

Betting Miscalculations

Baseball's most under- and overrated teams, based on whether they exceeded or fell short of their projected win totals since 2006 in sportsbooks.*

MOST OVERRATED		MOST UNDERRATED
TEAM	DIFF.	TEAM	DIFF.
1. Cubs	-34	T-1. Marlins	+29
2. Pirates	-29	T-1. Twins	+29
3. Indians	-27	3. Rockies	+24
4. Nationals	-26	4. Phillies	+18
5. Orioles	-21	5. Rays	+17

*2011 wins are prorated for a full season

Source: http://feeds.wsjonline.com/~r/wsj/xml/rss/3_7201/~3/q3_1r4HZeYM/SB10001424052702303714704576383664222124114.html

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